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2026-01-19

Quantum computing and fusion energy have similarities

This is probably more of a fun perspective than a precursor to some breakthrough insight.

• Similarities between quantum computing research and fusion energy research
  • Quantum computing and fusion energy both involve confiment of particles within some physical volume.
  • How to successfully do containment is the hard unsolved problem in both fields of research.
  • Using electric and magentic fields to do containment is the state-of-the-art in both fields. Using some material barrier to do containment is unlikely to work in both fields.
  • Examples
    • quadrupole ion trap used to suspend qubits in vacuum
    • magnetic confinement of plasma inside a torus-shapped vessel
  • I am betting against either of these fields seeing a breakthrough that makes either of these very useful to society.
    • Definitely not in next 5 years. Seems unlikely even in next 30 years. (Unless superhuman intelligence accelerates the timelines hard.)
    • My reasons for why I'm bearish on both of these has significant overlap. Namely that we aren't yet that good at controlling matter using fields alone.
    • See also: My timelines on all deeptech
• Differences between quantum computing research and fusion energy research
  • Quantum computing involves confining extremely low energy particles (near 0 Kelvin) from regular surroundings (near 298 Kelvin). Fusion energy involves confining extremely high energy particles (near 100 million Kelvin) from regular surroundings (near 298 Kelvin)
  • Quantum computing cannot tolerate even a few particles breaking confinement. Fusion energy can tolerate atleast a few particles breaking confinement (as the reaction vessel can absorb some wear-and-tear).

Disclaimer

• Quick Note

Side Note

• Some random videos on fusion energy that I liked. [1] [2] [3]
• I have some notes on these videos but they're not cleaned up well enough to publish.
• In short, many experts in the field are pessimistic on plasma confinement being solved anytime soon. (They seem to have actual technical reasons. I don't think it can be chalked off as academia just being pessimistic as usual.)
• There is internal politics that is preventing US academic grantmakers from just shutting down their major fusion energy projects, even though lots of people know they are probably going to fail. Plasma confinement has been heavily invested in, compared to other research approaches that might be less obviously doomed (and hence worth exploring).

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