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2025-10-23

My timelines on all deeptech

(assuming no pause enforced politically, assuming no civilisational catastrophe, assuming superhuman intelligence doesn't accelerate all the timelines)

Superintelligence

• Artificial superintelligence - maybe in 5 years. likely in 30 years
• Human genetic editing - likely in 5 years, very likely in 30 years
• Whole brain emulation of humans - very unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years

Likely

• Solar energy replaces fossil fuels - maybe in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
• Population-scale gene sequencing - maybe in 5 years, very likely in 30 years
• Population-scale gene editing (gene drives) - likely in 5 years, likely in 30 years
• Engineered bioweapons - maybe in 5 years, likely in 30 years
• Brain computer interfaces - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
• Artifical meat, meal replacements - very likely in 5 years
• Gigapixel cameras - very likely in 5 years

Unlikely

• Metaverse video calls as good as irl - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
• Cryonics - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
• Fusion energy - very unlikely in 5 years, unlikely in 30 years
• Biological anti-aging - very unlikely in 30 years
• Quantum computing - unlikely in 5 years, maybe in 30 years
• 3D printing - already used in some niches, very unlikely to replace mass manufacturing in 30 years
• Nanotechnology - very unlikely in 5 years, unlikely in 30 years
• Carbon capture - unlikely in 5 years, ??? in 30 years

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