WEBVTT
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Yes. Um, I sympathize with those who, um, are
devoting their lives
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to, um, alignment issues and trying to build AIs
aligned
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with, uh, humans.
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Uh,
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in the long run, however,
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I think there is no way of, uh, stopping, um, all
kinds of,
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um, AIs from having all kinds of goals that have
very
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little to do with, uh, humans.
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When I was a boy, I, um,
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I was thinking about what to do in my life.
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And then I thought the most
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exciting thing is to solve the
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riddles of the universe, and- and that means you
have to become a physicist.
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However, then I realized
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that there's something even grander.
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You can try to build
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a machine
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that isn't really a machine any longer, that
learns to become a much better physicist
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than I could ever hope to be.
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There's lots of material out there that you can
use to build robots and
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self-replicating robot factories, and all this
stuff.
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And they're going to do that, and they will be
scientists, um, and curious, and they
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will explore what they can do....
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physics, you need
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matter and energy to compute and to build more
robots and infrastructure and more
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AI civilization and A- AI ecologies consisting of
trillions of
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different types of AIs. And- and so it seems
inconceivable to- to
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me that this thing is not going to expand some...
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So,
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there's plenty of time
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to conquer the entire universe
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and to fill it with intelligence and senders and
receivers such that, um,
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AIs can travel the way they are traveling in our
laps
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today, which is by radio from sender to
receiver....
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in the ascent of humanity, I think succession to
AI is
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inevitable. Maybe this- these will be two machines
or maybe it will be humans augmented
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by machines.
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As we understand ourselves, it's inevitable that
we will become stronger and stronger.
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And- and we will continue changing as we have
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throughout
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history and pre-history.
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I think this much is obvious,
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but this is still very human-centric.
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We're saying what's, we're saying what's happening
to us, you know? It's us.
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Why be so human-centric?
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What about th- the universe? What is the universe
thinking as all this happens?
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Uh, what do- w- what would be the universe's
perspective?
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...
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but I- I want to touch on... So for you, there is
an inevitable consciousness, uh, to
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this system, which is why in part you feel like a
lot of successors would be worthy
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because they would be, by definition, if that
complex necessarily awake.
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Let me know if that's safe to nutshell.
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Trying to decide how I feel about the notion of a
worthy
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successor.
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Hmm.
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Even that, even that notion involves the
entitlement that- that it
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has-
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Yeah.
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... grown to be worthy of us.
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Hm.
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Well, one big thing will happen will be
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augmentations.
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Mm-hmm.
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If we understand how our minds work, then we ought
to be able to add, you know, a better
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memory.
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Uh,
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I- I want to, I want to be augmented. I want to-
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(laughs)
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... I want to think better.
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I want to, uh,
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you know, there are many advantages to digital
substrate over the biological one.
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Um, so we could be better.
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I would like to, uh,
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augment my mind so that I can understand more,
that m- my memory was better and I could
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calculate more possibilities and I could
experience
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more sensors-
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Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
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... like seeing, seeing the dark and
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have a, have a tail. (laughs)
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(laughs)
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Yeah.
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More arms.
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Yeah.
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Um, yeah. Uh, we want all those things.
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Obviously all of the things you might see in
science fiction.
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Uh, the ability to explore into the, into the
universe
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and- and the ability to control physical matter
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as
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generally.
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Yep.
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So- so if you decentralize th- then the assumption
is there would not be one,
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one possibility. There would be multiple
possibilities, and they would be competing and
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then that one would lose out. But as much as the
paperclip maximizer could lose out and
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all these...
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Possibly any one of these highly centralized
dictatorial,
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uh, arrangements would lose out to,
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um,
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a more, uh, decentralized one.
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The-
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the doomers, the doomers are just saying, "Oh,
somehow there's gonna be, it's going to
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be... I- i- that it's bad in the same way that
nuclear weapons are bad." That they...
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And that's just, they're just blinded by that
metaphor,
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um,
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by thinking that- that the AI will be out to kill
them.
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Um,
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that's just, it's just silly. And I- I don't, I
don't think...
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Well, they n- the, the doomers
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don't actually give coherent reasons for what they
bel- what they believe.
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Uh, and so it's hard to argue with them.
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Uh, so
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maybe it's fair just to hope that they're, they're
biased and blind. I don't...
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...
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at this point.
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No, I do have a prediction.
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Yeah.
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The prediction is one chance in four.
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In?
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Let's see.
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Of what?
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By 2030.
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