WEBVTT
00:06.100 --> 00:10.939
In between 5 and 20 years from now, there's a good
chance, a 50% chance,
00:11.219 --> 00:12.819
we'll get AI smarter than us.
00:13.000 --> 00:16.779
Oh, yeah. Yes, in fact, I have reduced my
00:17.319 --> 00:21.959
expectations for when we will get to AGI or
whatever human level.
00:23.020 --> 00:24.239
I used to think it would be
00:24.840 --> 00:28.579
5 to 20 years, and now I think it could be, you
know, 2 to 10 years.
00:28.659 --> 00:33.180
Yeah. And so as a result of that, I, I...
00:33.399 --> 00:37.740
You can find it on my blog from about 2009, I
think it's the first time I publicly talked
00:37.759 --> 00:42.440
about it. I predicted a 50% chance of, um, AGI by
2028.
00:43.159 --> 00:43.380
How did-
00:43.380 --> 00:45.140
And I still, I still believe that today.
00:46.919 --> 00:50.840
But still, if you, if you extrapolate this kind of
progress, we'll be in a very, very
00:50.959 --> 00:51.840
different place
00:52.700 --> 00:54.319
in 5 years, let alone 10 years.
00:55.239 --> 00:59.380
has been added. If you just kind of, like, eyeball
the rate at which these capabilities
00:59.439 --> 01:00.239
are increasing,
01:01.020 --> 01:04.959
it does make you think that we'll get there by
2026 or 2027.
01:05.239 --> 01:10.059
In the essay, you actually say a really big thing,
which is
01:10.599 --> 01:15.379
ASI, superintelligence, is actually thousands of
days
01:15.419 --> 01:15.839
away.
01:15.860 --> 01:18.260
Maybe. I mean, that's our hope, but our guess.
01:18.260 --> 01:18.439
Yeah.
01:21.659 --> 01:24.459
Like, I think, I think we're quite close to
digital superintelligence.
01:25.680 --> 01:26.720
It may happen
01:27.659 --> 01:30.739
this year, and if it doesn't happen this year,
next year for sure.
Enter "Subscribe: " followed by Signal username, email address or whatsapp phone number. You will receive atmost one update per month. View previous updates here.
Alternatively, you can use RSS, or a third-party service like blogtrottr.
Enter "Comment: " followed by comment. Alternatively, contact me