In between 5 and 20 years from now, there's a good chance, a 50% chance,
we'll get AI smarter than us.
Oh, yeah. Yes, in fact, I have reduced my
expectations for when we will get to AGI or whatever human level.
I used to think it would be
5 to 20 years, and now I think it could be, you know, 2 to 10 years.
Yeah. And so as a result of that, I, I...
You can find it on my blog from about 2009, I think it's the first time I publicly talked
about it. I predicted a 50% chance of, um, AGI by 2028.
How did-
And I still, I still believe that today.
But still, if you, if you extrapolate this kind of progress, we'll be in a very, very
different place
in 5 years, let alone 10 years.
has been added. If you just kind of, like, eyeball the rate at which these capabilities
are increasing,
it does make you think that we'll get there by 2026 or 2027.
In the essay, you actually say a really big thing, which is
ASI, superintelligence, is actually thousands of days
away.
Maybe. I mean, that's our hope, but our guess.
Yeah.
Like, I think, I think we're quite close to digital superintelligence.
It may happen
this year, and if it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure.