In between five and 20 years from now, there's a good chance, a 50% chance
we'll get AI smarter than us.
I used to think it would be five to 20 years, and now I think it could be, you know, two
to 10 years.
If you just kind of like eyeball the rate at which these capabilities are increasing, it
does make you think that we'll get there by 2026 or 2027.
If you extrapolate this kind of progress, we'll be in a very, very different place in
five years, let alone 10 years.
You can find it on my blog from about 2009, I think is the first time I publicly talked
about it, I predicted a 50% chance of, um, AGI by 2028.
How did-
I still- I still believe that today.
Like I think- I think we're quite close to digital super intelligence.
It- it may happen
this year, and if it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure.
In the essay, you actually say a really big thing, which is ASI
super intelligence is actually thousands of days away.
Maybe. I mean, that's our hope, our guess-
Yeah.