2026-03-16
This will never get better on its own
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- In 2022, I would have assigned P(ASI by 2030) = 15%. In 2026-03, I am now giving P(ASI by 2030) = 25%.
- The difference is only 10 percentage points. However my emotional state is markedly different.
- I think one of the biggest changes is the realisation that this is not getting better on its own.
- Capabilities have gone up a lot and the whole EA/LW ecosystem has achieved not much, by comparison. The russian roulette doesn't end in 2030, it's just going to keep repeating every 5 years from there on.
- Unless there is a prolonged AI winter for literal decades, the funding and research won't just dry up on its own.
- Even if we were literal one year away from ASI, it is possible that the public is asleep. Whether they are awake depends on whether someone put in the effort to wake them up. I can't even trust that this will happen on its own.
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