2026-01-19
Geopolitical alliance matrix
Disclaimer
- Wrote this back in 2025. Polished it for publishing online in 2026-01
- I have no actual background in international affairs or whatever. Figuring it out from first principles
I asked AI to pair-wise estimate strength of alliances between each of the nuclear powers
Alliance matrix
o3 says this, may contain hallucinations
Country,US,UK,France,Russia,China,Israel,India,Pakistan,North Korea
US,10,9.5,8,2,3,9,7,3,0.5
UK,9.5,10,8,2,3,7,7,4,0.5
France,8,8,10,3,4,6,6,3,0.5
Russia,2,2,3,10,8,3,6,4,7
China,3,3,4,8,10,4,3,8,7
Israel,9,7,6,3,4,10,7,1,0
India,7,7,6,6,3,7,10,1,1.5
Pakistan,3,4,3,4,8,1,1,10,4
North Korea,0.5,0.5,0.5,7,7,0,1.5,4,10
Key alliances
(alliance is key alliance if it has high number in the matrix)
- US - UK, F, IN, IS
- UK - US, F, IN, IS
- F - US, UK, IN, IS
- IS - US, UK, F, IN
- IN - US, UK, F, R, IS
- C - R, P, NK
- R - C, IN, NK
- NK - C, R
- P - C
Key insights
- world is more-or-less cleaved into two blocs - US-led bloc and China-led bloc
- India is not conforming with the US-led bloc, by allying with Russia
- Pakistan is partially kicked out of the china-led bloc, it doesnt have alliances with Russia or North Korea
- India allying with Russia has blocked Pakistan allying with Russia
- Pakistan is not conforming with the China-led bloc, by not allying with North korea, Pakistan still wants minor alliance with US
religion of political elites as of 2025
(first religion named is the majority, religion named in brackets is a significant minority)
- US - christian (atheist)
- UK - christian (atheist)
- F - christian (atheist) ?
- IS - jew
- IN - hindu (muslim)
- C - atheist
- R - christian (atheist)
- NK - atheist
- P - muslim
There's clearly a strong correlation between religion of political elites, and the geopolitical alliances formed.
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